Without any doubt, the race toward the 2027 elections has begun in earnest. All eyes seem to be on Oyo State politics, where ‘Seyi Makinde remains the only governor in the opposition in the entire South-West. While it is a fait accompli that Makinde will successfully serve out his two-term tenure, it remains to be seen if he can break the jinx and install a ‘Seyi Makinde successor at the expiration of his tenure.
The Historical Challenge Of Oyo State Governance
It is a feat not yet attainable; it is a tale that has neither been told nor heard in Oyo State—from its inception in 1976 to date—that an incumbent governor successfully produced and installed his successor.
The Oyo governorship race is becoming more intense, given the rampaging onslaught of the President Bola Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC), poaching all available political gladiators across the land. Can Makinde do the imaginable and change the course of history of the state, or would he go the way of his predecessors by failing to install his own successor?
A peep into the political trajectories of the 50-year-old state may likely provide a clue to projections ahead of the 2027 elections in Oyo State.
Bola Ige and Omololu Olunloyo
Going down memory lane, in the Second Republic, the late Chief Bola Ige, a man imbued with oratorical power, was at the helms of affairs from October 1979 till October 1983 when the late Dr Omololu Olunloyo took over as the governor of Oyo State. The latter’s administration was truncated by the military, three months into his tenure. Neither Ige nor Olunloyo was able to produce their successors.
Kolapo Ishola
The aborted Third Republic, under a civilian-military arrangement from 1991 to 1993, did not yield any opportunity to witness the feat of an incumbent governor installing his successor. The then governor, the late Chief Kolapo Ishola, could not even conclusively run his administration for a four-year term as power returned to the military, midway into his administration.
Lam Adesina
With the return to democracy and birth of the Fourth Republic, mid-wived by General Abdulsalami Abubakar, the late Alhaji Lam Adesina became the fourth civilian governor of Oyo State, alongside other governors in the South-West, elected on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD).
However, the status quo ante remained as Lam Adesina did not have the opportunity to even produce a successor. Though he contested for a second term of office, courtesy of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) tsunami that ravaged the South-West and was spearheaded by the domineering former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Lam and all other AD governors in the zone, with the exception of Senator Bola Tinubu of Lagos, were routed and swept away from office after the 2003 elections.
Rashidi Ladoja
Senator Rashidi Ladoja (now the 44th Olubadan of Ibadanland) became the beneficiary of the PDP/Obasanjo tsunami; he emerged as the fifth governor of Oyo State, following the 2003 elections.
Ladoja, however, went the way of his immediate predecessor, Lam, as he too could not produce or install a successor. But, unlike Lam, his was a disturbed and troubled four-year single term. He soon fell out of favour with some powerful elements in the PDP, including Obasanjo and his erstwhile godfather, the late Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu.
The Ladoja administration was overwhelmed by political intrigues, leading to the controversial impeachment of the governor which lasted for 11 months, from January to December 2006. Although he was restored back to office later in the year via judicial intervention, it was a step too late in coming.
Ladoja could only serve for one term. The PDP leadership, both at the state and at the federal levels, had taken a decision; Rather than Ladoja, his deputy, the late Chief Adebayo Alao-Akala, will have the party’s ticket for the 2007 governorship election.
Adebayo Alao-Akala
The Ogbomoso-born grassroots politician was the greatest beneficiary of the impeachment of his former boss, Ladoja. Having been at the helms of affairs for 11 months, he went on to contest for and won the 2007 election, thus emerging as the sixth civilian governor to rule the Pacesetter State for another four years.
Described as the most benevolent governor Oyo State has ever produced, and with a top-notch level of human relations, Alao-Akala, in the build-up to the 2011 elections, was seen by many as the first governor that would win a second term tenure. Alas, this was not to be as he surprisingly lost out at the poll and thus missed the opportunity to produce and install his successor.
Three main factors could be attributed to the electoral loss of Alao-Akala in 2011: Number one was the political intrigue behind the saying, “Ibadan kìí sin èèyàn leemeji” (Ibadan does not serve one person twice). The gang-up against the late former governor, spearheaded by the Ibadan elite, personified by the late Aare Musulumi of Yorubaland, Alhaji Azeez Arisekola-Alao, was so intense. It also had the support of the immediate past Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Olayiwola Adeyemi III. Alao-Akala acknowledged this factor as he declared that his defeat in the 2011 elections was not due to under-performance, but the “sin” of his geographical place of birth.
The second factor, many are wont to say, was due to the death of Alhaji Adedibu, the benefactor of Alao-Akala. Adedibu was, indeed, a unifying factor and a rallying point in Oyo PDP and a great mobiliser of men. Without any iota of doubt, the late self-styled “Strongman of Ibadan Politics” played a pivotal role in the emergence of the late former governor as the PDP candidate and his eventual victory at the poll in 2007. Alao-Akala attested to these facts in his autobiography, “Amazing Grace.” The death of Adedibu marked a negative turning point in the fortunes of the PDP in the build-up to the governorship election in Oyo State in 2011.
Another major factor, though downplayed, was an alleged feud between former President Goodluck Jonathan and Alao-Akala. Insiders within the PDP had disclosed then that Jonathan felt slighted at a meeting held with the former governor in his office at Aso Rock, and in the presence of some few PDP leaders. The former president thus reportedly vowed not to support the second-term ambition of the late former governor.
Indeed, the greatest loser in the 2011 elections in Oyo State was the late Alao-Akala. He failed to win a second-term tenure; he could neither produce nor install a successor. His attempt to return to office in the 2015 elections was futile; he also did not succeed in helping his new-found political party, APC, to install its candidate, Chief Bayo Adelabu, as the governor of Oyo State in 2019.
Abiola Ajimobi
The late Senator Ajimobi was the greatest beneficiary of the Ibadan gang-up that led to the ouster of his predecessor from office in 2011. He emerged as the seventh civilian governor of Oyo State on the platform of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) which later metamorphosed into the APC.
A man who brought panache, finesse, and poise to office, the late former Governor Ajimobi was described as an achiever and architect of Modern Oyo State. The Ibadan-born politician won his re-election in 2015 to become the first sitting governor to achieve such a feat. He broke the second-term jinx and thus deservedly earned the sobriquets, “Koseleri” and “Pegunrun”.
However, and in spite of all the notable achievements attributed to his two-term administration, and the breaking of the second-term jinx in Oyo State notwithstanding, the late former federal lawmaker could not replicate his winning magic wand; he was not able to install a successor to take over in his stead at the expiration of his tenure in 2019.
The failure of Ajimobi to break the jinx and install a successor was attributed to two major factors: One was the fact of the pervading schism in the Oyo APC, prior to the 2019 elections. While the governorship aspirants of the party were not ready to step down for each other, it was speculated that the preferred candidate of Ajimobi was Chief Joseph Tegbe, while Bayo Adelabu who, until 2018, was a deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), was the anointed candidate of the then Senator Bola Tinubu.
The imposition of Adelabu as the APC candidate in the 2019 governorship election further widened the gulf as party chieftains and other aspirants vowed to work against his success at the poll. This largely accounted for the APC loss at the poll, coupled with the popularity of the then PDP candidate, Engineer ‘Seyi Makinde, which had by then grown exponentially across all parts of the state.
Also, the late former Governor Ajimobi was described as a strong personality with a caustic tongue. Indeed, he spared no one, friend and foe alike, whenever he wanted to unleash his tongue. This character trait caused disaffection for him within the APC and among the people of the state. It eventually accounted for his failure to install a successor. Even he, as an incumbent governor, shockingly lost out in 2019 to somebody regarded as an underdog, Senator Kola Balogun, then of the PDP, in a senatorial contest likened to the biblical battle between Goliath and David.
‘Seyi Makinde and the 2027 Context
As noted earlier, with his growing popularity and acceptance, coupled with a formidable political structure he already had on ground, Omituntun, ‘Seyi Makinde came into the 2019 electoral contest like a volcanic eruption. The then PDP candidate proved many bookmakers and naysayers wrong as he did the unimaginable in the election. Contrary to the pessimism of the established order and power-brokers, Makinde coasted home to victory, winning 28 out of the 33 local government areas in the state, a feat hitherto unattainable in the political history of Oyo State.
While some people attributed his victory in the 2019 poll to a last-minute rainbow coalition by some notable politicians in the state, several others were of the view that Makinde would still have won without the coalition, but with a lesser margin. One incontrovertible fact was that the incumbent clearly won the election and he has written his name in history as the elected eighth civilian governor of Oyo State.
Makinde, who has since declared that he has no godfather except God the father, further proved unbelievers wrong. Demonstrating that his victory in the 2019 election was no fluke, he went into the 2023 contest with the incumbent factor, and riding on the crest of his popularity and acceptance among the people, and also well-armed with a credential as a performing governor.
He was rewarded by the people of the state; the outcome of the 2023 contest was, yet, unprecedented. Not only did Makinde emerge as the second incumbent, after Ajimobi, to win a second term; he battered his closest rivals—Senator Teslim Folarin (APC candidate) and Adelabu (Accord Party)—winning in all the 33 local government areas in the state. The feat remains a reference point in political discourse in Oyo State.
Between 2019 and now, Governor Makinde has been able to raise the bar in governance in the state to a higher pedestal, from where his predecessor, Ajimobi, left it. As testified to at the recent one-week long Oyo @50 celebration, many people have testified to the great attainments of the incumbent governor in good governance. This is not, however, to close one’s eyes to some other areas that need government attention.
Forces Against Makinde And His Successor
However, whatever that has a beginning must surely have an end. ‘Seyi Makinde has about 14 months to finish his constitutionally-approved two-term tenure. He, at this juncture, and like it happened to his predecessor, would be preoccupied with the task of choosing his successor, if only to continue wherever he would stop by 29 May, 2027.
While not casting aside the issue of governance, it is, indeed, crystal clear that Governor Makinde has been deeply involved in the issue of who succeeds ‘Seyi Makinde post-29 May, 2027. He has, since mid-2025, been talking about his likely successor. While he said the people of the state will decide on who will be the next governor, Makinde had also stated it clearly that whoever would succeed him must have the interest of Oyo State and its people at heart.
The governor, while declaring that he would not impose any candidate on the people and the state, had clearly demonstrated that he would be interested in and support whoever would ensure continuity after his exit from the Agodi Government House in May 2027.
Some few months into the conduct of congresses across all the registered political parties in the country, it remains to be seen who would be the anointed candidate of Governor Makinde ahead of the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State.
In late 2025, Makinde said he will make public his choice of a successor, but more than mid-way into the end of the first quarter of 2026, he is yet to unveil his candidate. But not unaware of the fact that many, from both the PDP and other political parties, are jostling to take over the baton from him, just last Thursday, Governor Makinde urged members of his own political party, especially appointees in his administration who have political aspirations, to go public and declare their political ambitions ahead of the 2027 elections.
Speaking at the 2026 Iftar organised by the state government and held at the frontage of the Banquet Hall, Government House, Agodi, Ibadan, Makinde assured such aspirants of his support, once their loyalty and commitment are to the people of the state and the development of the state.
The governor also directed the office seekers to use PDP as the political platform. He noted that the directive became imperative following claims that he has not freed aspirants seeking offices, especially those in his government, despite the election timetable having been released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
He said: “I have read on the social media that I have not given the go-ahead to political appointees who have ambitions to hold different political offices, including the governorship seat. So, henceforth, you are free. Whoever wants to contest for any position, bring out your billboards. And those of you who are bothered about the PDP crisis, add the party’s logo to the billboard, nothing will happen.”
APC vs PDP: The Battle For Oyo 2027
Much as the governor is trying to downplay what is at stake in his quest to produce and eventually install a successor, there are a lot of factors that are standing as hurdles before him. Some of these hurdles can be described as the enemies from within the PDP, while some others are from outside of the party.
It is a known fact that the PDP is a house divided against itself; the party is in a legal logjam with the Minister of the FCT, Chief Nyesom Wike, holding one end of the stick, while Governor Makinde and a few other leaders are holding the other end. Wike, a former ally of Makinde and a former governor of Rivers State, is apparently having the upper hand, just as the Court of Appeal, only on Monday, voided the PDP National Convention, held in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, late 2025.
A curious observer noted that the PDP has become unviable for any elective post in Oyo State in 2027. Declaring that “Makinde has eaten his own meal and thrown away the pot,” the observer noted that hardly one can see anyone contesting for any post under PDP in the state.
“The ugly scenario is unlike before when, by now, each political post would have recorded, at least, 10 to 15 aspirants, being a ruling party. Unfortunately for PDP aspiring politicians, they would have used Makinde’s image as a working governor to gather votes but he is not going to be on the ballot in 2027.
“Makinde worked tirelessly for the people of Oyo State but failed his party members. He failed them in 2023 for working for the candidate of another party without guiding his home like how Wike did. He lost eight members of the House of Representatives and all the three senators to the opposition.
“But as he was trying to correct his mistake of 2023, a bigger problem befell the party in 2025 and 2026. As things are now, PDP members are not happy with him at the moment,” he said.
Speaking in the same vein, the just re-elected APC Publicity Secretary in Oyo State, Mr Olawale Sadare, declared in a recent exclusive interview with Just Politics, a weekly political platform on NewscovenTv, that PDP no longer exists in the state. In the place of PDP, Sadare said, is what he called Seyi Makinde Party (SMP).
Elaborating further, he told NewscovenTV, the television arm of Newscoven.com, that Governor Makinde is running a one-man show in the state. “As things stand now, PDP is not the ruling party in Oyo State. There is no PDP in power in the state. What we have in power today in the state is the Seyi Makinde Party (SMP).
“Governor ‘Seyi Makinde has arrogated every authority to himself; he has become autocratic. He is running a one-man show in the state. You will have to agree with me that PDP itself is now a deplorable structure in the state. The party is in coma, as we speak today. It is practically non-existent,” the APC spokesperson said.
Beyond the internal crisis in the fast-depleting PDP, both in Oyo State and across the country, there is a big elephant in the room that Governor Makinde would have to contend with, if he is truly desirous of producing and installing a successor that will be in sync with his desire for the continuity of his programmes and plans for the state, after his exit from office on 29 May, 2027.
Implications Of Makinde Installing A Successor
The likely implications of Governor ‘Seyi Makinde installing a successor after him are not far-fetched…
First and foremost, it will amount to a total victory unprecedented for Makinde to, as the incumbent, produce and install a successor. He already has in his kitty the honour of being the second governor, after the late Ajimobi, to be voted twice, and back-to-back, into office.
It would amount to an absolute “Koseleri” and “Pegunrun” if he could go ahead to install a successor and, by so doing, become the real jinx-breaker in the political history of the Pacesetter State.
Secondly, and most importantly, such a feat by Makinde will establish him as the real godfather or grandmaster of Nigerian politics within the state. His emergence in such a capacity will surely sound the death-knell of many political parties and political gladiators in the state, especially from the APC extraction. The import of this fact was not lost on the Oyo State APC Publicity Secretary, Sadare, who said the party will not allow a repeat of the mistakes of 2019 and 2023 in 2027.
Indeed, Governor ‘Seyi Makinde is engaged in a battle of wits with several forces over the fate of Oyo State in 2027. But would the other political parties in the state allow such a scenario to happen? Would the bulldozing APC, under the firm leadership of President Tinubu, allow the incumbent governor to have his way, break the jinx and eventually install his successor in 2027? Does Governor ‘Seyi Makinde still possess the charming magic wand that won the hearts of the people and residents of the state in 2019 and 2023? The race for the soul of the Pacesetter State has begun. Would Makinde break the glass ceiling, or would the “Agodi Jinx” claim another victim?
It is, indeed, a rat race for the soul of Oyo State as the generality of the people and watchers of events are waiting with bated breaths as things unfold, ahead of the 2027 elections.
