“The figures do not support the simple assertion that Atiku’s delegates merely transferred their allegiance to Abiola. Rather, they point to a significant reduction in participation across multiple camps.”
More than three decades after the historic June 12, 1993 presidential election, one claim continues to be repeated as though it were an established fact: that Atiku Abubakar stepped down for Chief MKO Abiola during the Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential primaries and thereby facilitated Abiola’s emergence as the party’s presidential candidate.
The assertion has been echoed so often that many Nigerians now accept it without question. Yet, a careful examination of the political circumstances surrounding the SDP convention in Jos, as well as the voting figures themselves, suggests a more complicated reality.
Atiku, Abiola and 1993 SDP Convention
To understand the events properly, one must revisit the political climate of the period. Prior to the emergence of presidential candidates for the SDP and the National Republican Convention (NRC), General Ibrahim Babangida’s administration disqualified 13 prominent politicians from participating in the transition programme. Among those affected were Adamu Ciroma in the NRC and Major-General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua in the SDP.
The disqualifications dramatically altered the political landscape. Within the SDP, the exclusion of Yar’Adua was particularly consequential. At the time, he commanded one of the most extensive political networks in the country and enjoyed considerable support across numerous states. Many political observers believed that his removal significantly changed the balance of the contest.
It was against this backdrop that Chief MKO Abiola entered the race. Whether the disqualifications inadvertently benefited Abiola or were merely the outcome of Babangida’s political calculations remains a matter for historians. What is beyond dispute is that the removal of several leading contenders reshaped the contest and opened opportunities that might not otherwise have existed.
The principal contestants who eventually emerged in the SDP were MKO Abiola, Babagana Kingibe and the former vice president. The latter was widely regarded as the political protégé of Shehu Yar’Adua, while Kingibe, a former National Chairman of the SDP, enjoyed substantial institutional support within the party, having cultivated strong relationships with SDP governors and influential party leaders.
The convention, held in Jos, was therefore intensely competitive. Contrary to later attempts to portray Abiola’s emergence as inevitable, the nomination was fiercely contested.
I was present in Jos as a correspondent for a foreign news agency and witnessed many of the developments first-hand.
The atmosphere was charged, alliances shifted constantly and the stakes could hardly have been higher. There were widespread reports of extraordinary efforts by contestants and their supporters to mobilise resources and sustain the convention despite attempts from certain quarters to frustrate the process.
When voting commenced, the first ballot produced the following results:
MKO Abiola- 3,617 votes
Babagana Kingibe- 3,225 votes
Atiku Abubakar – 2,066 votes
Total votes cast- 8,908
Although the late SDP presidential candidate finished ahead of his rivals, he failed to secure the majority required to clinch the nomination outright. A run-off therefore became necessary.
It is at this point that the historical record begins to diverge from the popular narrative.
For years, many supporters of Atiku Abubakar have maintained that he stepped down in favour of Abiola and effectively delivered his delegates to the eventual winner. The implication is that Abiola’s nomination was made possible by his intervention and sacrifice.
The electoral arithmetic, however, raises important questions. In the run-off, MKO secured 2,683 votes while Kingibe obtained 2,456 votes, bringing the total number of votes cast to 5,139. Between the first ballot and the run-off, total participation fell from 8,908 votes to 5,139 votes. In other words, 3,769 delegates who participated in the initial ballot did not take part in the second round.
The figures become even more revealing when one considers that MKO and Kingibe together secured 6,842 votes in the first ballot. Yet, in the run-off, their combined total fell to 5,139 votes, representing a decline of 1,703 votes.
The figures therefore do not support the simple assertion that the delegates of the former vice president merely transferred their allegiance to Abiola. Rather, they point to a significant reduction in participation across multiple camps.
The voting data strongly suggests that delegates who had supported Atiku in the first ballot did not move en masse to either of the remaining candidates. Equally noteworthy is the fact that a substantial number of delegates who had initially supported MKO or Kingibe were also absent from the run-off.
Whatever political negotiations may have occurred behind closed doors, the numerical record does not demonstrate a wholesale transfer of Atiku’s support base into Abiola’s column. Instead, it reveals a far more complex and nuanced picture than the one commonly presented in public discourse.
None of this diminishes MKO Abiola’s achievement. He won the SDP nomination through his own political strength, organisational capacity and ability to build alliances across the country. His subsequent victory in the June 12 presidential election remains one of the defining moments in Nigeria’s democratic history.
Acknowledging Abiola’s accomplishments does not require the acceptance of claims that are unsupported by the available evidence. The voting record from Jos raises substantial doubts about the popular interpretation that the withdrawal of the former vice president from the convention directly delivered the SDP nomination to Abiola.
As someone who was physically present at the convention and observed the proceedings first-hand, I believe it is important that historical events be remembered as accurately as possible.
I, therefore, respectfully urge the former vice president and his spokespersons to exercise greater caution when presenting this claim as settled history. The available evidence does not establish that his delegates moved en masse to Abiola. On the contrary, the numerical record points to a substantial withdrawal of participation between the first ballot and the run-off.
Fortunately, many individuals connected to those events remain alive and capable of offering their recollections. Among them is Kola Abiola, who is well placed to confirm or challenge competing accounts of what transpired during that pivotal convention.
The June 12 struggle occupies a unique place in Nigeria’s democratic journey. It deserves to be remembered with fidelity to the facts rather than embellished by convenient political myths.
History belongs, neither to politicians, nor to their admirers. It belongs to the truth. When the figures from Jos are examined objectively, the claim that the former vice president stepped down and delivered the SDP nomination to MKO Abiola appears considerably less certain than its advocates would have Nigerians believe.
