Mr Olufemi Aduwo has declared that any alignment by opposition political parties and political leaders without strategic alliances will not succeed in unseating President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
He said it was not enough for the opposition to simply unite as they need to win over, at least, seven governors of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
He added that anything less than such strategic alliances would be a mere engagement in a game of musical chairs with no real substance.
The human rights advocate and civil society activist stated these in response to the series of meetings ongoing among leaders of opposition political parties ahead the 2027 elections.
Aduwo is the Chief Executive Officer of Rights Monitoring Group (RMG) and also the Chairman, Board of Directors, Centre for Convention on Democratic Integrity Ltd/Gte (CCDI), a non-governmental organisation registered with CAC in Nigeria, with a Consultative Status of ECOSOC/ United Nations since 2017.
He said the various calls by the opposition parties to come together with the sole aim to defeat the incumbent president in 2027 would be an effort in futility, if not carefully and strategically planned.
He said a mere united opposition may not succeed, noting that many of the political parties were built around some individuals who can be found mostly in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
“I have heard calls for the opposition parties to come together to defeat Tinubu. But let us be honest, many of these parties are built around individuals, both in the APC and PDP.
“Take the formation of the APC in February 2013. It came about from the merger of Nigeria’s three largest opposition parties.
“The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), along with a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
“These parties had governors, which was crucial. In November 2013, five serving governors from the PDP defected to the APC.
“They included Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa and Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto.
“Unknowingly to former Vice President Abubakar Atiku, the walkout, led by him during the PDP National Convention, was the moment his political ambition hit a dead end.
“In the 2015 presidential poll, the “New PDP” states delivered a massive 3,322,010 votes to former President Muhammadu Buhari, who defeated his predecessor, Good luck Jonathan, by 2,571,758 votes. Without the group, the APC and Buhari would have lost.
“So, it is not enough for the opposition to simply unite. They need to secure, at least, seven APC governors. Anything less, they are merely engaging in a game of musical chairs with no real substance.
“If they are serious about change, they need to win over key APC figures. Which change are we talking about?,” he said.
Speaking about former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Aduwo described him as a power-hungry and self-centred politician whose dream of becoming the president may never become a reality.
“Now, let us talk about Atiku. He is so power-hungry and self-centred that it is almost laughable. He dreams of ruling Nigeria, but the reality is, he will never get close to that office.
“Atiku is a politician who has been outmanoeuvred far too many times and seems incapable of understanding the wider national interest beyond his own ambitions,” he said.
Aduwo said the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 election, Dr Peter Obi, does not have a full grasp of the Nigerian geopolitical reality.
“Peter Obi, my friend, doesn’t fully grasp Nigeria’s geo-political reality. In 1979, Papa Awolowo, running for the presidency under the UPN, picked an Igbo man, Dr. Philips Umeadi, as his running mate and Papa Awolowo was both the party’s presidential candidate and national chairman.
“This made the party vulnerable in the North, as it was seen as a predominantly Christian party. In 1983, however, Awolowo understood the dynamics better and chose Alhaji Kura from the North.
“The national chairman of the Labour Party, a Christian from the South-South, is a big minus. LP should have considered the wider political landscape before making such a decision. This is a political game of strategy, not just idealism.
“The Labour Party is certainly not representative of Nigeria’s diverse religious and ethnic makeup, which limits Obi’s chances of winning.
“He needs to broaden his political base if he hopes to succeed. Currently, he doesn’t have a party since he doesn’t belong to the Abure LP faction, which is lawfully recognised,” he added.
Aduwo also talked about Dr Akinwunmi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB) and his speculated presidential ambition in 2027.
“Lastly, let’s touch on the idea of Dr. Adesina of the AfDB running in 2027. He is certainly qualified and I was among those who encouraged him to contest in 2023. But we were told he collected the form, and then it ended there.
“I highly doubt any serious Yoruba man would contest against Tinubu in 2027. Why? Not because Tinubu is the most intelligent or educated. Far from it!!! But because of the political realities on the ground.
“At the end of the day, it is all about power dynamics and who holds the strings. The opposition must get their act together and realise that it is not about just uniting for the sake of unity.
“It is about securing strategic alliances with key political figures, particularly within the APC. Without that, the opposition is doomed to repeat its past mistakes.
“I belong to no political party; I belong to Nigeria,” Olufemi Aduwo declared in a press release he made available to Newscoven.com on Wednesday.
