The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the external reserves of the country will rise to $51.04 billion in 2026, and estimated the debt-to-GDP at 34.6 per cent ratio.
The apex bank, which noted that external reserves projection was supported by foreign exchange (FX) reforms, published the forecast in its recent macroeconomic outlook report for Nigeria.
It also projected the International Investment Position (IIP) to record a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion in 2026, adding that attractive yields were anticipated to further boost capital inflows.
The IIP assesses the value and composition of a country’s external financial assets and liabilities. A positive or negative value is an indication that a nation is either a creditor or a debtor.
“The IIP is projected to record a net borrowing position of US$69.58 billion in 2026, as attractive yields are anticipated to further boost capital inflows.
“Reforms in the foreign exchange market are expected to sustain exchange rate stability, while external reserves are projected to increase to US$51.04 billion,” it was stated in the report.
CBN disclosed that the GDP will rise to 4.49 per cent in 2026, noting that the positive outlook builds on gains recorded in 2025, when Nigeria posted a balance of payments surplus of $5.8 billion, supported by a rise in external reserves to an estimated $45.01 billion, from $40.19 billion in 2024.
It was stated in the report that the relative stability in the FX market was driven by domestic reforms, higher capital inflows, export receipts and expanding local refining capacity.
The CBN projected Nigeria’s economic growth rate to rise to 4.49 per cent in 2026, driven by structural reforms, easing monetary policy stance, and increased investment in the oil sector.
According to the report, the headline inflation is also expected to moderate further to an average of 12.94 per cent, supported by declining food and petrol prices.
Debt-To-GDP Ratio Estimated At 34.68% End-2026
The CBN disclosed that the fiscal outlook for 2026 remained optimistic, with retained revenue and expenditure projected at ₦35.51 trillion and ₦47.64 trillion, respectively, resulting in a provisional deficit of ₦12.14 trillion, or 3.01 per cent of GDP.
“Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected at 34.68 per cent by end-2026, compared with 33.98 per cent as at June 2025, predicated on expected new borrowings,” the report added.
“The positive trend in the external position is expected to be sustained in 2026, supported by strong exports, steady remittances inflow, increased oil and gas output, improved domestic refining capacity and rising global demand from key trading partners.
“The current account surplus is expected to rise to US$18.81 billion, while increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are projected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of US$10.15 billion,” it stated.
The CBN, however, warned that the outlook is subject to risks, including inflationary pressures from excessive fiscal spending, global financial market shocks, geopolitical tensions, and potential disruptions to crude oil production.
The bank regulator stated that it would continue to deploy appropriate policy instruments to maintain price stability, support output growth, attract foreign investment and strengthen financial system stability in 2026.
On the global front, the CBN stated that world economic growth moderated slightly to 3.20 per cent in 2025, compared with 3.30 per cent in 2024, due to lingering trade tensions and weaker demand in major economies.
“Global inflation moderated to 4.20 per cent, on account of lower energy costs, and the continued normalisation of supply chains.
“Financial conditions eased in many economies, following moderating inflation, less-restrictive monetary policies, rising investor confidence, and the de-escalation of trade tensions,” the apex bank added.
Despite this, CBN disclosed that the performance of the Nigerian economy remained strong in 2025, with growth estimated at 3.89 per cent, compared with 3.38 per cent in 2024.
The performance, the CBN added, was supported by improvement in both the oil and non-oil sectors.
