The social media and various other medium of communication have been inundated by several positions, interpretation of facts, distortion of facts, misrepresentation, smear campaign, backbiting, backslapping, intrigues, near truth and falsehood in respect of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State.
These negativities have come to be the bane of seemingly great party, dwindling its electoral fortune in the state within the period in consideration in the state chapter of the APC.
In retrospect, 2018 APC congresses in Oyo State resulted in sharp division within the party which led to the creation of the Unity Group and eventual porting of most members of this group to another party, the Advance Democratic Congress (ADC).
Some members of the Unity Group who stayed back in the APC constituted themselves into a mole that work against the party from within.
The resultant effect of this was the dismal performance of APC in the 2019 elections which saw the leader and the then incumbent governor losing his polling unit and senatorial bid.
The same applied to the gubernatorial candidate who lost his polling unit and eventually did not win the governorship seat.
It is also important to state that during the 2019 presidential and national assembly election, APC failed to deliver for the president but won two senatorial and nine House of Representatives seats.
During the second election that followed the governorship seat was lost to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which also won 26 House of Assembly members, while APC won five seats and ADP one, respectively.
The same pattern of result repeated itself as a result of similar decision of some party stalwarts who did not accept the outcome of the 2022 party congresses and the party primaries.
The situation led to the exit of some member who ported, this time, to Accord, while some stayed back in the party to deal a devastating blow undermining a victorious outing for APC in 2023.
Both election result in 2019 and 2023 are in all ramification not different, except that PDP was able to improve on its winning strategy which to all discerning mind showed that since every politics is local they tend to concentrate more on the Governorship/House of Assembly elections as could be seen from the aforementioned elections.
This will be further discussed in the course of this write-up.
It is worthy of note that, though Oyo APC lost the presidential election in 2019 which was conceived by the disgruntled members to taint the then incumbent governor that he has not been in control of the party and confirming his loss of electoral grip within the state using it to justify their position, in 2023 ethnic consideration and the personality of the APC presidential candidate simplified our efforts at winning.
The result of the election has been adjudged by researchers as the best result out of the 14 winning states of the federation.
Dissecting the result of 2019 and 2023, one would conclude that the incumbent governor in Oyo State have practically demonstrated, as a business man, that one should put his/her money where it matters: In this case, concentrating more on the Governorship/House of Assembly more as can be seen from the elections (2019 and 2023) in perspective.
In the two elections, APC had maintained winning nine House of Representatives seats with an improvement now in the member of the senatorial seat from two in 2019 to three in 2023.
Stemming from above position, it is also pertinent to note that in 2019, PDP concentrated its winning streak to three areas namely, Oke-Ogun; Ibarapa and Ibadan, while in 2023, it changed its concentration to Oyo, Ogbomoso, Ibarapa and Ibadan.
The reason for this decision is the noticeable vacuum created by the demise of the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Olayiwola Adeyemi III and former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala which made Oyo and Ogbomoso vulnerable.
Also, the impeachment of the former deputy governor accounted for the dismal performance of PDP in Oke-Ogun.
It will be recalled that membership of the House of Representatives is usually rotated between the three local government areas constituting the Federal Constituency, that is, Irepo/Olorunsogo/Orelope which, most times, make it difficult for house of Reps member from the federal constituency to go for a second term unless it is at different time or a prior understanding.
Furthermore, the House of Representatives slot is rotated between Oorelope/Olorunsogo/Irepo.
The effect of this allusion reared its head during the 2023 elections where an Irepo candidate wrestle the mandate from the incumbent who is from Oorelope and also that the House of Assembly slot goes back to Irepo from the incumbent who is from Olorunsogo.
It is therefore safe to conclude that the influence of the former deputy governor and the traditional rotational understanding influenced the voting pattern in the federal constituency.
The same applied to Saki East/West/Atisbo Federal Constituency that has been won by APC since the incumbent who defected from APC contested 2023 election on the platform of Labour Party and lost.
The two state House of Assembly seats within the federal constituency were shared- one each by APC and PDP.
A lot of people, also for reason best known to them, were of the opinion that the governorship candidate of APC in 2023 was not marketable.
I always disagree with this for the simple reason that you are what you make of your product.
The most damning or damaging position is that when the process of de-marketing an individual starts from one’s enclave, then the road to failure is imminent.
Most of the allegations leveled against the Oyo APC governorship candidate in the 2023 elections are mere fabrications and conjectures. Every human has their weaknesses.
A lot of aggrieved members of APC who lost, either during the congresses or primaries, resorted to consistent smear campaign to the extent of painting a scenario that the 2023 governorship candidate was not loyal to the President- elect.
This was particularly during the presidential primaries as they opined that Oyo governorship candidate was the coordinator of some other presidential aspirants.
They also alleged that he misappropriated the fund for presidential campaign and presidential election in the state when there was Presidential/Governorship Campaign Committee constituted for the purpose of handling this and sundry matters.
I am not writing as solicitor for our gubernatorial candidate but rather expressing my free-will from information at my disposal.
Some others alleged sales of party ticket to the highest bidder, among others are all a figment of the imagination of peddlers.
It is rather unfortunate that in-house wrangling and unbridled ambition of an individual whose attempt at having absolute control of the party in the state led to the failure of the party.
Unfortunately, those who thought they could do it alone by jumping ship or lay siege from within discovered that they did so at their peril with absolutely nothing to show for their overrated popularity.
Whereas, if we had all scarified, the event would have probably turned in our collective favour, which means life more abundant to our teeming supporters in term of patronage and dignity.
What a lot of people tends to forget is that you do not team up with other people to destroy your own house, if truly it is yours.
I have critically looked and ruminated over the simple method consistently employed by other party to win the governorship election in Oyo State as I have briefly earlier mentioned but will rather not make it a subject of discussion in this write-up.
It is realiseable; achievable; recognisable and surmountable since it is only a stupid fellow that will hit his toe on a stone on the same spot twice.
Politics today has gone beyond infrastructural development and economic wizardry but Josef Stalin life chicken theory, very unfortunate.
If anybody is claiming that some people also left PDP for other political parties, yes it is but this a very warped assertion for individual so concerned or affected are kingmakers
In APC, preponderant numbers are would-be kings themselves and also individuals who want to be in control, whether as a result of their financial status or overrated political status.
I do not agree with those claiming to have supported the incumbent governor in winning the 2023 election, except if they can claim to have equally supported him in 2019.
In conclusion, lack of having a respected individual that can stand as the rallying point is the major factor militating against the unity and success of APC in Oyo State.
Two elections are not the same as could be seen in the elections between the period in consideration. However, the two are strategically similar in every ramification.
The lost glory of our great party can still be redeemed if we are all ready to sacrifice; if we have unity of purpose; principle of give and take; spirit of forgiveness; inclusiveness; tolerance and mutual respect, leaving God to be captain.
The ship shall sail smoothly berth to a prosperous harbour.
We have individually or collectively flexed our muscles and have seen how far it can take us. Only ability; capability; courage; confidence and tenacity can do the magic.
Let’s sheath our swords and build a strong party we shall all be proud of with a renewed hope.
•Rt Honourable Alarape is the Minority Leader of the Oyo State House of Assembly.
